Key insights
- The post discusses the potential success of RITM's conversion from an mREIT to a corporation, referencing historical examples. Key factors to monitor during earnings releases include mortgage interest spreads, assets under management, and potential spinoffs. The analysis suggests a mixed outlook, with historical performance varying significantly post-conversion, indicating a moderate bullish influence if the conversion is perceived positively.
I did some surface exploration on this and the success of such an attempt seems like a mixed bag.
ARES - success - 2018 - 210%- 5Y
CXE - success - 2021 - Flat
GEO - success - 2021 - Flat
KKR - Success - 2018 - 188% - 5Y
QCP - failure - 2018 - acquired
WIN - failure - 2015 - bankrupt
istar - TBD - 2023 - neutral
ritm
I understand all were for different reasons and clearly based on the years there are some macro effects.
The question, what should we be looking for during earnings release: Mortgage interest spreads? Assets under management?, spinoffs?spinoff?
2nd question: of the 2 successful ones out there the 2 year time frame post conversion is anywhere from 10% drop into rally or rally out of the gate.