Key insights
- President's aggressive speech on Iran triggered contradictory asset price movements. Oil, stocks, and the dollar rose, while Bitcoin and treasury yields fell, with increased rate hike expectations. This unusual misalignment suggests heightened uncertainty and risk aversion, potentially leading to near-term equity market volatility as investors struggle to interpret the geopolitical implications and their impact on the economy and monetary policy.
Everything's misaligned after today, following the POTUS's surprisingly aggressive speech on Iran. It's like every asset is moving independently while working off the same information.
- Oil futures 1-4 months out all up significantly
- Stocks finished green
- BTC falling back down
- Dollar increased
- Rate hike odds for 2026 increased by 15%
- 10-30 year treasury yields declined (how is this 1 possible with rate hike odds rising?)
Each of these moves contradicts at least 1 other move. I've never witnessed a more confusing day in the last 20 years. I'm unsure how to make sense of all the contrasting moves.