Key insights
- The S&P 500's 50-day moving average crossing below its 100-day moving average is presented as a bearish technical signal. Historical instances show mixed results, with subsequent declines ranging from 3% to 15%. This suggests a potential for further downside in the short to medium term, but the magnitude and duration are uncertain. Market participants should monitor price action and other indicators for confirmation.
Here are the last few times this happened:
March 19, 2025: the market fell a further 15% over the next 3 weeks
October 17, 2023: the market fell a further 6% over the next week
February 24, 2022: the S&P 500 fell a further 15% over the next 4 months, followed by a brief 19% rally over 2 months, followed by another 19% drop over the next 2 months
March 19, 2020: the market fell 11% over the next few days marking the Covid bottom
November 14, 2018: the S&P 500 fell a further 14% over the next month and a half
April 13, 2018: the market fell 3% over the next 3 weeks
February 1, 2016: the S&P 500 fell another 7% over the next two weeks
Is this a sign of a stronger move to the downside?