Key insights
- The post discusses the potential upside for Micron (MU) due to the anticipated HBM shortage extending into 2026. It highlights a recent price increase and suggests that current valuations, while seemingly high, may be justified by strong demand forecasts and limited supply growth. The author is contemplating when to take profits, indicating a bullish sentiment driven by the HBM market dynamics.
i need someone with good knowledge of the HBM market to answer this. How bad can the shortage get. ik micron will be like cisco of the 2000s after a few years, but not so soon.
I did watch a dwarkesh podcast recently where the guest explained in detail on how worse the HBM shortage is gonna get towards the end of 2026...there has been a 10% raise in prices in the last week. How long can this keep going
idk when to book profits but near 1 trillion valuation for a HBM company is crazy, but if i look at forward PE it looks dirt cheap if the demand forecasts are true that supply isn't gonna increase for another 2 years