Key insights
- The post suggests Novo Nordisk's Wegovy HD, a higher dose version of Wegovy, could close the efficacy gap with Eli Lilly's Zepbound in the weight loss drug market. It argues that Wegovy's lower dosage has created a perception problem, and Wegovy HD could win back customers. This could positively influence NVO stock if Wegovy HD gains market share.
Ok, I havent heard this anywhere before. When NVO discussed Wegovy HD, it unlocked a memory for me about watching the movie dopesick. I remembered there was a whole thing about perdue increasing the dosage to essentially make more money.
Well I remembered Zepbound/Wegovy dosage... Wegovy max dose is 2.4mg. Zepbound starter dose is 2.5, and goes all the way up to 15MG! So when they talk about Zepbound being the winning weight loss drug, well, perhaps it only wins becuase the dosage is over 6X the NVO product.
Okay you could argue they are different products so maybe its like comparing apples to oranges. But what does NVO do? Launch Wegovy HD at 7.2MG! And what happens next? It closes the gap on efficacy from 15% weight loss -> 21% weight loss, where Zepbound at 15mg is 22.5%. NVO can still increase dosage and I'd presume based on this efficacy curve, actually beat Zepbound results if dose were the same.
So is NVO really behind in the GLP game, or is it a perception problem? Can WegovyHD win them back customers... We'll see I guess!