Key insights
- The author initiated a long position in $OPEN, citing an asymmetric risk/reward profile ahead of earnings. The thesis rests on the market underpricing Opendoor's pivot to a platform model, a potential housing market recovery, and high short interest. A better-than-expected Q4 revenue beat provides further support. The author acknowledges dilution risk but believes the current price reflects a worst-case scenario.
Took a position in $OPEN today $5.3 Yeah yeah, the iBuyer graveyard stock. But it’s not the same setup anymore.
Why I’m in:
Market still pricing 2022 disaster
Everyone remembers the blowup. Nobody pricing the pivot.
They’re shifting away from inventory risk
Less “we hold houses and pray”, more platform/AI marketplace. If that sticks, margins change completely.
Q4 wasn’t as dead as expected
$736M revenue vs ~$594M est. Still losing money, but that’s a big beat when everyone expects a corpse.
Macro tailwind sitting there
Housing is frozen. If rates even chill a bit, transactions come back → that’s literally their whole game.
Short interest ~13%
Not insane, but enough. This thing already showed it can move stupid fast on any momentum.
Risk (obvious):
Still burning cash, could get diluted, could easily dump to $2 before anything happens.
Why I still bought:
At ~$5 you’re paying for worst case. Any improvement in execution or housing activity and the upside is guud.
Just saying risk/reward looks kinda stupid here.
See you at $15+ or at Wendy’s