Key insights
- The author questions the continued efficiency of the market, citing examples like speculative AI and tech stocks with extreme valuations, and the GameStop saga. They suggest a shift from value investing to trading hype due to increased retail investor participation and a perceived disregard for traditional risk and value metrics. This sentiment, if widespread, could indicate a market driven by speculation rather than fundamentals, potentially leading to increased volatility and mispricing.
I have considered myself to be a value investor for the past few years. And over time i have started to doubt that approach. I also took some of my university courses on the topic.
However, i get more and more the impression, that the theories of Graham and co. that i learned about dont work anymore.
One reasoning behind this would be the increased market access of individual investors who do not take topics like risk or value into consideration.
We ve had topics like Hydrogen with small unprofitable companies becoming worth billions, we have tech stock with eye watering valuations, think of Palantir, we have had Tesla being overvalued for years now. And lets not forget the whole GameStop story.
Now we have AI with stocks with Price to Sales ratios above 100 and huge losses being worth. We have the whole issues of AI companies passing the money around among them to boost the numbers. Now we have 3 crazy IPO with SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic coming up with very unprofitable companies at insane valuations becoming public.
I m more and more thinking about just starting to trade hype instead of looking for solid companies as this seems to be the way to go now.
I would love your opinion and advice on this.
Especially if you have experience that reaches back more than the 5 years and can tell something about how it was before Covid.