Key insights
- BASF CEO warns of significant risks to the automotive sector and global economy from the Iran conflict, citing potential material shortages and supply chain disruptions. This geopolitical tension, coupled with existing inflation, creates a darker outlook for H2. While not predicting a Taiwan conflict, the CEO highlights the immense economic impact of potential sanctions on China, far exceeding that of Russia, underscoring broad global economic fragility.
Investing.com -- BASF SE Chief Executive Officer Markus Kamieth warned that rising inflation and potential supply chain disruptions stemming from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran have created a darker outlook for the automotive sector and wider economy.
Speaking at a gathering for journalists in Frankfurt on Tuesday, Kamieth said material shortages are becoming more likely and could halt tightly managed supply chains such as car production. The conflict is already contributing to a scarcity of inputs like sulfur and helium.
"That's a downside risk that I can see for the second half of this year," Kamieth said. "There is this creeping risk that at some point a material won't be available."
BASF supplies the global auto industry with coatings, plastics, catalysts, battery materials and other chemicals used by carmakers and their suppliers. Shortages of basic inputs could increase the risk of assembly-line stoppages in an industry that relies on thousands of components from multiple sources.
Kamieth said he does not believe China or the US want to trigger a conflict over Taiwan. He added that a complete Western decoupling from China would be impossible even if a confrontation occurs over the disputed territory.
"Sanctions would come, countermeasures would come," Kamieth said. He pushed back on comparisons with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the response of western economies with financial countermeasures. "Russia is economically a mini-mini effect compared to China," he said.