Key insights
- The author suggests that the current SPY price level reflects a negative impact from the Middle East conflict. Positive macro data releases might have propelled the SPY to 7400-7500 absent the war, implying the conflict is still a drag on equity valuations, even after the recent rebound to 7000. This perspective highlights the importance of considering geopolitical factors when assessing market performance.
Seen lots of posts discussing the rebound and how we’ve shrugged off war woes in the indices.
I want to briefly offer the perspective that the current price level may impound war effects. We’ve had several macro readings over the last month that have been relatively positive. For example, PPI print came in lower than expected, jobs numbers weren’t showing a worsening labor market, CPI read looked good except for energy.
It is very possible (likely even) that SPY would be much higher (7,400-7,500) if the war hadn’t happened. The fact that we have rebounded to the previous index level (7,000) does not necessarily imply that there is zero war effect on prices or that markets are ignoring the conflict. Rather, it could simply be that markets are realizing that the war impact isn’t going to be the worst case scenario (what was being priced in).
Caveat: This is just one potential explanation/perspective, and I don’t have exceptionally strong evidence in support of this argument. Of course, current market action could be irrationality, but I’m just not seeing many folks considering where index levels would be today if the US had not initiated the Middle East conflict. I believe this is important context to keep in mind.