Key insights
- The author expresses concern that the market is underestimating the impact of geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions on oil prices. They believe the market is ignoring the realities of the oil supply shock, the ongoing war, and potential US intervention in the Strait, leading to a disconnect between market prices and the expected future supply issues. This could lead to increased shipping costs and broader inflationary pressures.
I'm seeing articles about how oil futures are much lower than the actual cost of delivered oil (as in oil futures do not reflect the tru price of oil, which is much higher). Everything I read indicates that even if the war ended right now, damage has been done to production and distribution, there is a massive shortfall in oil, and it will take months/years for production to return to pre-war levels.
and that is all before we add in the fact that 1) the war is very much NOT over 2) the straight is very much NOT open, and 3) now the US itself is pledging to disrupt the flow of oil and other goods/commodities thru the straight?
WHY is the market acting like it doesn't know all of the above? there is no way the ongoing oil supply shortage is priced in. there is no way the continuation of the war is priced in.
I'm just looking to understand why a market (that i'm told is always pricing everything in instantaenously) is listening to obvious lies ("gas prices should be about the same as now come the midterms", "we won the war! it's basically over! WE are going to charge tolls, not Iran!") and pricing those in, while ignoring plain facts about the future supply issues oil WILL be facing (and the follow-on effects of increased shipping costs for literally every damn thing).
Peace talks ended with no agreement, Israel is destroying entire villages in Lebanon and declaring that it's going to permanently take and occupy their territory, and now the US is also going to fuck with traffic thru the straight. where is the market's reaction to this news? I'm not trying to time the market (not pulling anything out of the market, still on pace to contribute the max to my 401k into VTSAX, etc.) because I am not looking to take any money out for the next 25 years...but when it comes to my post-tax investment options, i'm having a really hard time feeling like the stock market is behaving rationally. my post-tax investment dollars are paying down my mortgage right now (5.625% and we're still in year 2, s it's a great time to do that) instead of going to the market, because YIKES at global news.
Help me make sense of it?