Key insights
- March PCE data shows inflation rising, both including and excluding energy, exceeding expectations and the Fed's 2% target. This reinforces the Fed's current hawkish stance of holding interest rates steady. Internal divisions within the Fed regarding an 'easing bias' suggest potential for a more hawkish policy shift, posing a bearish signal for US equities.
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/feds-favored-inflation-gauge-shows-rising-prices-as-war-heated-up-131007113.html A new reading on the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge shows energy prices boosted overall inflation, while inflation excluding energy price increases also rose, locking in the central bank’s stance holding interest rates steady. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 3.5% in March on a headline basis, in line with expectations. That’s up from 2.8% in February before the war. On a “core” basis, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, inflation rose 3.2%, also in line with expectations, and up from 3% in February. The reading shows that inflation was already sticky rising from the month prior and is now over a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target. With warming inflation in the background, Wednesday’s policy meeting revealed deep division within the Fed over its current “easing bias.” Three voting members objected to including language in the policy statement that continues to telegraph that the central bank is eventually looking to cut rates again.