Key insights
- Goldman Sachs projects a slightly stronger-than-expected April payrolls report, estimating 75,000 jobs added. This is based on positive big data indicators. They anticipate a slight decline in government payrolls. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3%. A stronger-than-expected jobs number could be slightly bullish for equities, suggesting continued economic resilience.
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs estimates nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 in April, slightly above the consensus expectation of 65,000, according to the firm's latest forecast.
The investment bank cited solid performance in big data indicators tracked during April as a positive factor. However, Goldman Sachs expects a 5,000 decline in government payrolls, driven by a 10,000 decrease in federal government positions, partially offset by a 5,000 increase in state and local government employment.
Unlike recent months, weather conditions and worker strikes are expected to have minimal impact on the April employment report, the firm noted.
Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment rate remained unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.3% in April. The bank noted that the threshold for rounding down to 4.2% is relatively low, given the unrounded March figure of 4.26%.
Average hourly earnings are estimated to have risen 0.3% month-over-month in April, reflecting neutral calendar effects, according to the forecast.