Key insights
- The author anticipates significant market volatility on Wednesday due to the simultaneous release of the FOMC rate decision and earnings reports from AMZN, GOOGL, META, and MSFT. Changes in capital expenditure expectations from these companies, which are seen as supporting the US economy, could heavily impact the semiconductor, mining, and energy sectors. A large SPY move is anticipated.
First, JPOW is going to release the FOMC rate decision at 2pm and take the stage at 2:30. Then before anyone has time to process the information, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT are ALL reporting earnings at the same time.
ANY of them could rise or drop 10% quite easily as they will be compared directly to their competitors across each of their business segments.
Also, the unprecedented capital expenditures of these 4 companies is what is holding up the entire US economy, so any changes to spending expectations WILL move the entire market, particularly the semiconductor, mining, and energy sectors.
Bers are still refreshing CNN hoping that "Iran" or "Oil prices" will save their puts completely oblivious to the event 10x the size of some little middle eastern conflict happening next week. I don't think SPY moving +/- 2% after hours is even that unlikely.
It's for sure not financially responsible to hold onto every single option I own through the mother of all IV crushes we're going to see Wednesday but I'm not sure if I'll ever see a bull ride this exciting for years to come, so it's hard to resist