Investing.com -- AstraZeneca’s non-oncology business is expected to account for around 65% of the group’s projected 6% compound annual sales growth between 2026 and 2031, yet the division remains underappreciated by investors, Bernstein said in a note dated Friday.
The broker reiterated its "outperform" rating on the stock and maintained a price target of £186, compared with AstraZeneca’s closing price of £135.54, implying upside potential of about 37%.
"Despite the promising non-oncology phase 3 data since 3Q25, our channel checks indicate that this business still doesn’t get its fair share in the investment debate," analysts said.
Bernstein’s 2030 total revenue forecast of $89.06 billion stands 11% above AstraZeneca’s own $80 billion risk-adjusted guidance and 8% above Bloomberg consensus of $82 billion.
The broker projects all top-line product sales upside to consensus between 2027 and 2035 will come entirely from non-oncology.
The largest consensus gap sits in Wainua, AstraZeneca’s transthyretin amyloidosis drug, where Bernstein’s risk-adjusted 2035 estimate of $4.80 billion is 170% above Bloomberg consensus of $1.80 billion. AstraZeneca has guided to non-risk adjusted peak sales of more than $5 billion.
Phase 3 CARDIO-TTransform data is expected in the second half of 2026. AstraZeneca’s head of non-oncology R&D, Dr. Sharon Barr, told Bernstein that U.S. diagnosis rates for ATTR cardiomyopathy remain at just 30%.
For AZD0780, an oral PCSK9 inhibitor for high cholesterol with phase 3 data due in 2027, AstraZeneca has guided to peak sales of more than $5 billion against Bloomberg consensus of $2.40 billion.
Bernstein estimates $3.10 billion by 2035. Dr. Barr said AZD0780 will not carry fasting requirements, unlike Merck & Co’s competing candidate enlicitide decanoate, and is more amenable to combination therapy.
Tozorakimab, AstraZeneca’s chronic obstructive pulmonary disease drug, reported positive headline phase 3 data on March 27, 2026. AstraZeneca has guided to peak sales of $3 billion to $5 billion against Bloomberg consensus of $2 billion.
In its bull case, Bernstein derives 179% upside to 2035 adjusted earnings before interest and tax against 101% downside in its bear case.
The approved portfolio accounts for 55% of the upside scenario, led by Ultomiris, where Bernstein’s 2035 estimate of $9.60 billion exceeds consensus of $6.50 billion.
The price target averages a discounted cash flow valuation of £148, using an 8% weighted average cost of capital, and an enterprise value to EBITA valuation of £224, applying a 60% premium to European pharmaceutical peers.
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