Key insights
- The author anticipates a potential bounce in the S&P 500 ($ES), targeting 6750 if it establishes above 6645, supported by individual stocks forming higher lows. A VIX drop towards 22 is expected if the bounce materializes. Countering this bullish view is a high put/call ratio and declining crude oil prices, suggesting some underlying bearish sentiment. Overall, a short-term bullish bias is expressed.
Off of last week’s price action which suggests a technical bounce - tracking 6645 on the $ES and its resolution and a potential drop in the VIX below 25; perhaps settling closer 22 for trend continuation if it likes
Individual stocks are working off a higher-low so a broader participation helps over the course of the week
On the other side: Put/Call ratio remains high and Crude Oil $CL whether it likes steadily working lower towards 108. Currently sandwiched between 111 and 108
60% sure that the index bounces and better odds if the ES establishes above 6645. Ideally, gives it room till 6750