Key insights
- GLJ Research upgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to Hold from Sell, citing a tight physical steel market and import restrictions supporting prices, contrary to prior bearish forecasts. While acknowledging the supply-driven squeeze, the firm remains cautious due to underlying demand being only moderately above normal and potential late-cycle indicators. The stock has seen significant gains but faces headwinds from its debt load and analyst concerns about profitability this year, suggesting a limited upside from current levels.
Investing.com - GLJ Research upgraded Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) to Hold from Sell on Monday and raised its price target to $15.01 from $9.03.
Analyst Gordon Johnson said the upgrade reflects a material change in the evidence since the firm’s May 5, 2026 Sell note, which predicted that an inverted buyer-sentiment curve and the calendar’s seasonally weakest two-month window would drive a second-half 2026 hot-rolled coil price rollover.
That bearish call has not played out. US hot-rolled coil has continued to grind higher through the period the firm flagged as weakest, and an unusually tight physical market colliding with a structural import wall has proven both more durable and more price-supportive than GLJ Research modeled.
The firm stopped at Hold rather than upgrading to Buy for four reasons. This is a supply-led squeeze, not a demand boom, with channel work and industry commentary indicating underlying demand is running at roughly 1.0x to 1.25x normal, versus the 3x to 4x post-stimulus surge of 2021. Late-cycle markers are beginning to flash, including public commentary about watching for a peak and distributor contacts pegging a potential wobble to late-October or November lead times.
Cleveland-Cliffs has rallied approximately 40% in roughly two weeks from around $10.30 on May 15 to a $14.69 intraday high on June 2, leaving only about 11% to the revised target. The stock has since pulled back, currently trading at $12.68, down 14% over the past week. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears overvalued at current levels relative to its Fair Value estimate. The company carries approximately $7.9 billion of net debt. InvestingPro Tips highlight that Cleveland-Cliffs operates with a significant debt burden and analysts do not anticipate profitability this year—two of 13 total tips available to subscribers.
In other recent news, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. reported its Q1 2026 earnings, revealing a narrower-than-expected loss with an EPS of -$0.40, surpassing the forecast of -$0.41. The company also exceeded revenue expectations, reporting $4.9 billion against a forecast of $4.81 billion. Additionally, Cleveland-Cliffs announced a three-year partnership with Palantir Technologies to deploy artificial intelligence solutions across its manufacturing operations. This agreement will integrate Palantir’s AI platform into the company’s production planning and operational workflows.
In another development, shareholders at the annual meeting elected all nominated directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, with each nominee receiving a majority of "for" votes. The directors elected include Lourenco Goncalves and Ralph S. Michael III among others. These recent developments highlight Cleveland-Cliffs’ ongoing strategic initiatives and corporate governance activities.
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