Key insights
- Bank of America's "Traffic Signals" report, using Placer.ai data, indicates positive foot traffic trends for Tenet Healthcare (THC) in April, suggesting higher-than-consensus Q2 volume growth. HCA Healthcare's foot traffic aligns with consensus. UHS and ACHC show decelerating trends. Overall, the average implied Q2 growth is slightly below consensus. This may lead to minor sector-specific stock movements.
Investing.com -- Bank of America released its "Traffic Signals" report analyzing foot traffic data at publicly traded hospital companies for April, showing positive trends for Tenet Healthcare Corp (NYSE: THC) and neutral results for HCA Healthcare Inc (NYSE: HCA).
The report uses foot traffic data from Placer.ai as a real-time proxy for hospital volumes, which has shown a 90% correlation over the past 27 quarters. The analysis revealed that second-quarter foot traffic year-over-year growth is above consensus growth estimates for THC, while falling below expectations for HCA, Universal Health Services Inc (NYSE: UHS), and Acadia Healthcare Co Inc (NASDAQ: ACHC).
Compared to first-quarter average data points, April showed acceleration for THC with an increase of 290 basis points and HCA with an 80 basis points rise. UHS remained in-line with the first quarter, while ACHC decelerated by 90 basis points.
The traffic data suggests THC's implied second-quarter volume growth at 3.5% versus 1.3% consensus, and HCA at 2.1% matching the 2.1% consensus. ACHC is projected at 1.1% compared to 4.6% consensus, while UHS is estimated at 0.0% versus 2.1% consensus. The average implied second-quarter growth stands at 1.7% against a 2.5% consensus estimate.
HCA's foot traffic registered 1.3% year-over-year growth in April, marking a 30 basis points acceleration from the 1.0% year-over-year growth recorded in March.
THC's foot traffic showed 3.8% year-over-year growth in April, representing a 210 basis points acceleration from the 1.7% year-over-year growth seen in March.
UHS's foot traffic declined 7.3% year-over-year in April, a 100 basis points deceleration from the negative 6.3% year-over-year figure in March.
ACHC's foot traffic decreased 0.2% year-over-year in April, marking a 220 basis points deceleration from the 2.0% growth recorded in March.