Key insights
- Major brokerages are largely bullish on the S&P 500 through 2026, citing AI and strong earnings as drivers, with targets ranging from 7,100 to 8,100. Global GDP growth is expected to be moderate. The impact of the Middle East conflict and potentially higher oil prices are noted as risks to the outlook. Goldman Sachs recently raised its S&P 500 target, joining a wave of bullish calls.
May 27 (Reuters) - Top brokerages expect the benchmark S&P 500 index to extend its rally in 2026, even as the months-long Middle East conflict disrupts global energy flows and drives inflation higher.
Strategists at major investment banks expect AI momentum and strong corporate earnings to offset the conflict’s short-term economic impact. However, they warn that persistently higher oil prices could increase recession risks.
Goldman Sachs became the latest brokerage to raise its index target, adding to a wave of bullish brokerage calls.
Following are forecasts from some top brokerages on economic growth and the performance of U.S. stocks in 2026:
Forecasts for stocks:
Brokerage 2026 S&P 500 index target
BofA Global Research 7,100
Societe Generale 7,300
UBS Global Research 7,500
Jefferies 7,500
Canaccord Genuity 7,500
BNP Paribas 7,500
J.P. Morgan 7,600
Barclays 7,650
HSBC 7,650
Citigroup 7,700
Evercore ISI 7,750
Seaport Research Partners 7,800
RBC Capital Markets 7,900
UBS Global Wealth Management 7,900
Deutsche Bank 8,000
Goldman Sachs 8,000
Morgan Stanley 8,000
Oppenheimer Asset Management 8,100
Wells Fargo Investment 7,400-7,600
Institute
Real GDP Growth:
Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. EURO AREA UK
Citigroup 2.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.8%
Goldman Sachs 2.4% 2.1% 0.7% 1.2%
Morgan Stanley 3.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.9%
Barclays 3.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.7%
Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.7%
UBS Global Wealth 3.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.1%
Management
Deutsche Bank 3.3% 2.5% 0.5% 1.3%
HSBC 2.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.8%
J.P. Morgan 2.5% 2.0% 0.7% 1.2%
BofA Global 3.1% 2.2% 0.7% 1.0%
Research
UBS Global 3.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Research
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UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
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Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank