Key insights
- The author presents a bearish thesis based on potential disruptions to global oil supply due to damage to a Qatari LNG facility and geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. They anticipate inflationary pressures and negative impacts on Asian economies. The author holds short positions in QQQ, SPY, CVNA, and long positions in USO and XLE, reflecting a bet against the broader market and on rising energy prices.
Ok listen up. Bulls r fuk. I’ll tell you why.
My thesis:
Downplaying just how bad infrastructure is already damaged, main LNG facility is Qatar is like 30% damaged and the timeline is already at months-years. Turning the pumps back on is not automatic. Ripple effects in the economy and production in Asia are already taking effect. The oil supplies of these countries are running down and the echo is going to be traveling for some time. Some countries are literally asking people to shower less and take the stairs (I smell inflation? And sweaty Koreans). This is already going to make things far worse for a while even if the conflict stopped tomorrow.
Everything needs oil. Fertilizer production slowing down makes food more expensive. Transporting literally anything is going to be more expensive for the foreseeable future.
Portion 2: the geopolitical realities right now
Iran literally holds all the cards, this is like inverse 300 where king Leonidas and 300 spartans can block a one million persians in a small mountain pass, except this time Xerxes is the entire U.S navy and air superiority. They can block the strait with a few speedboats with bombs and endless drones, they have started mining the strait reportedly. The diplomacy that is going on is very very preliminary and has already been rejected by Iran multiple times for being a non-starter. This is a catch-22 circle jerk where the U.S suddenly ending this can't even be spun as a victory, which feeds back into the need to stay longer to achieve something. This is not politics, this is controlling the flow of the spice.
Yes I’m part of the community 🏳️🌈🐻 I am personally leveraged to my maximum risk tolerance (shout out to the good old days of u/1r0nyman)
Positions:
USO 118c 6/18/26
QQQ 570p 5/1/26 (post CPI numbers which should be bad)
CVNA 300p 4/10/26
XLE 58c 7/17/26
~10 shares of LNG at $240ish
SPY 650p 5/1/26
I focus mostly on higher delta ITM options bc I’m already down so much at the casino. See recent post from other guy about rolling USO weeklies with high delta.
Going to tap back into SLV and IAU once the dust starts to settle. Initially these will probably go down because of liquidity needs but if inflation sets in they will recover hard. Just waiting for a good entry point but looking at July dated SLV 74.50 strike.
Tl;dr
Diplomacy is overstated
Hopium too strong
Infrastracture worse than people think
Oil and inflation up, market and crypto down bigly and then gold/silver up after once they disconnect from the reaction and start following their fundamentals.
Godspeed regards