Key insights
- The article argues that recent rule changes by Nasdaq and FTSE Russell, allowing companies with shorter seasoning periods and relaxed float requirements, were timed to facilitate the inclusion of high-valuation, unprofitable AI companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic into index funds. This pre-emptive structural adjustment suggests a 'slow bleed' rather than a crash, embedding potential losses within retirement accounts and making a sharp correction politically unfeasible. The author views this as a deliberate mechanism to avoid a market crash by spreading losses widely among unsuspecting investors.
The AI bubble won't crash. It'll just slowly empty your retirement account instead.
SpaceX lost $4.9 billion last year. OpenAI won't be profitable until 2030. Anthropic is filing at nearly a trillion dollar valuation. All three are entering index funds your retirement account tracks automatically.
The timeline is worth looking at. February 2026, Nasdaq opens consultation to change inclusion rules. May 1, Nasdaq implements new rules cutting the seasoning period from three months to 15 days. May 2026, FTSE Russell relaxes float requirements. May 20, SpaceX files its S-1. June 1, Anthropic files. June 8, OpenAI files. June 12, SpaceX lists.Every institutional adjustment came before every filing. In sequence.
A real crash would require someone to allow it. When these valuations are embedded in retirement savings of millions of people, a correction becomes politically impossible. So instead of a crash you get a slow bleed. Losses spread across pension funds and index investors who never chose to own these companies. No dramatic moment. No accountability. The structure for this outcome was built before the first filing dropped.