Key insights
- The author discusses the cyclical nature of market efficiency, noting periods of perceived efficiency followed by periods of mispricing. The key is identifying these inefficiencies early, as they tend to be subtle initially and become obvious only in hindsight. This suggests a need for vigilance and a contrarian approach to identify undervalued or overvalued assets.
There are long stretches where the market feels extremely efficient.
Prices reflect information quickly, moves seem justified, and it’s hard to find obvious mispricings. In those periods, it’s easy to feel like there’s no edge unless you have superior information.
But then you get moments where things disconnect narratives run ahead of fundamentals, or strong companies get ignored for extended periods.
Those are the interesting phases.
What I’ve noticed is that inefficiencies don’t disappear they just become less frequent and more concentrated. And when they show up, they tend to be subtle at first, then obvious in hindsight.
The challenge is recognizing them early enough to matter.