Key insights
- The post expresses concerns about the current economic and geopolitical climate, including inflation, interest rates, private debt risks, AI-driven job displacement, and potential disruptions to oil supply due to geopolitical tensions. The author is considering reducing equity exposure to protect capital, driven by concerns about future work capacity and ensuring financial security for their spouse. This reflects a bearish sentiment driven by macro concerns, potentially leading to reduced investment and increased risk aversion among similar investors.
I am by no means a new investor. I have near a million in retirement accumulated over my 22 years of working. I’ve followed the tried and true path in index investing.
The problems now presented as a result of the current administration are beginning to “feel” insurmountable. I have a disability(muscular dystrophy) that could render me unable to work by the time i am in my mid to late 50s. I’m currently in my peak earnings time of life. I don’t have debt and have a house with around 300k equity.
The main things I’m seeing are highly inflationary damage as a result of a poorly planned assault on Iran that resulted in the regime exploring options of enforcing fees on transit of oil. Tariffs which are already a form of austerity against Americans. Somewhat middling but high for the time period interest rates, a breaking point for general Americans. Large amounts of risky private debt associated with risky data center investments, and significant cost inputs as a result of already constrained compute resources like RAM and so forth. Job displacement as a result of AI reducing job growth prospects in businesses meaning less money flows.
The forces in the market right now having someone like me who’s an extremely cautious, patient, tolerant, and measured thinking I need to protect my capital for the next 10 years.
Am I foolish or?
Edit: I’m more concerned with making sure my wife is taken care of if I’m not around. That’s my motivation to work is making sure she’s ok. That’s why I’m so anxious.