Key insights
- JPMorgan upgraded Air Products and Chemicals (APD) to Overweight, citing stable earnings and a potential recovery in helium prices due to geopolitical disruptions. Higher oil prices are expected to boost demand in chemicals and refining, benefiting APD's North American volumes. The firm forecasts improved EPS for fiscal 2026 and sees room for a re-rating given the stock's discount to Linde plc.
Investing.com -- JPMorgan upgraded Air Products and Chemicals to Overweight, citing more stable earnings relative to peers and a potential recovery in helium pricing following recent geopolitical disruptions.
The brokerage said the company is positioned to outperform in an environment marked by slower economic growth, higher inflation and rising interest rates, given the predictability of its earnings.
Air Products’ results have been weighed by lower helium prices and excess supply, but JPMorgan said pricing is now turning higher after disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy complex, a key global supply hub.
The bank expects this shift to reduce the earnings drag from helium in fiscal 2026 and support a recovery in profitability. It now sees the EBITDA impact from helium at about $120 million, smaller than the company’s earlier estimate of roughly $150 million.
JPMorgan also said higher oil prices should lift demand in chemicals and refining, which together account for roughly 40% to 50% of Air Products’ revenue, driving stronger volumes in North America.
The company’s business model provides some insulation from cost pressures, with about half of its sales tied to long-term on-site contracts that pass through raw material costs.
JPMorgan forecasts fiscal 2026 earnings per share of $13.05, up about 8.5% from the prior year, and said balance sheet strength remains solid with net debt to EBITDA of about 2.3x, excluding the NEOM project.
The brokerage set a $310 price target, noting the stock trades at a wider discount to industry leader Linde plc than its historical range, suggesting room for re-rating as earnings stabilize.