Key insights
- The author observes a significant dip in the Brazilian stock market (EWZ), attributing it to foreign capital exit, upcoming IPOs, profit-taking, a new dividends tax, and US tariffs. Despite these factors, the author believes the market is fundamentally undervalued due to less aggressive dividend taxation compared to the US, stable company fundamentals, expected interest rate cuts, and a centrist government. The author suspects a hidden issue despite the apparent opportunity, suggesting potential indirect negative sentiment spillover or a lack of confidence in emerging markets that could subtly impact global risk appetite, though direct US market impact is limited.
I'm in the brazilian market, since April/26 our market (EWZ) took a 20% dip. According to our news sources its due to: foreign capital exit; the upcoming infamous IPOs, investors realizing profits; the new dividends tax; USA Government tariffs (that exclude goods to USA consumer market); Political scandal in the opposition, who aren't the economy governors.
Nevertheless, fundamentally it doesn't make any sense at all: our new dividends law tax isn't as aggressive as US market; we have companies that still have the same fundaments and values as the last year; our "Brazilian FED" interest rate should fall finally, benefiting companies and consumers; our government is very centrist and left wing in name only (like UK Labour Party and SPD and German), the other political wing project is not grounded on reality.
And the stocks became "cheap" again as last year, for a beginner like me, it looks like opportunity. But i'm very suspicious of some fundamental issue i'm letting pass, but i can't find it. Have you ever seem such a scenario ?