Key insights
- An analysis highlights Kratos' (KTOS) significant backlog growth of 87% from June 2025 to September 2026, reaching $2.65 billion. However, this growth is not reflected in public Department of Defense contract announcements, suggesting it stems from smaller or indirect contracts. The stock is currently valued similarly to AeroVironment (AVAV), despite the backlog increase. The author sets a 12-month target of $40 for KTOS, assuming 19% revenue growth and a stable valuation multiple.
I'm a high-school student building a free site that matches every Department of War contract announcement since 2024 to the stock that won it, and compares each award with the company's backlog (RPO) from SEC filings. One thing that surprised me: Kratos (KTOS) RPO went from $1.41B (Jun 2025) to $2.65B (Sep 2026), +87%, but I found no definite DoD announcements to Kratos since Nov 2025. The growth is coming from contracts too small or too indirect to be announced. Valuation (Nov 6 closes, EV/sales): KTOS 3.2x vs AVAV 3.1x, MRCY 4.7x, LHX 2.4x. So it's priced like AeroVironment despite the backlog jump. My 12-month target is $40 (entry $35.10), assuming 19% revenue growth and a flat multiple. Every number links to its SEC filing: https://apersonli55555.github.io/hangar/pitches/2026-11-09-KTOS-long.html What am I missing? Not investment advice; I don't own it.