Key insights
- NIO reported October deliveries of 34,246, marking its first year-over-year decline in 31 months and falling short of the 40% growth target. The company now needs to average 60,946 deliveries per month for November and December to meet its annual goal, a figure significantly higher than its all-time record. This miss, coupled with ongoing balance sheet concerns, suggests a negative outlook for the company.
NIO October deliveries: 34,246 — first year-over-year decline in 31 months. The 40% growth target now needs 60,946 a month. The all-time record is 48,135.
TL;DR: NIO printed October deliveries of 34,246 — down 15.2% year over year, the first decline in 31 months, and down 8.5% from September. Three weeks ago I published six checks that would prove my $2.95 bear case wrong. One of them — Q4 deliveries of at least 156,138 to hit the CEO's 40% growth floor — can already be graded. It failed in October.
The print, by brand
NIO brand: 18,125 — up 5.7% year over year, down 15.0% from September. ONVO: 8,383 — down 51.7% year over year. Halved. FIREFLY: 7,738 — a record month, up 30.9% year over year. Total: 34,246 — the lowest month since April.
The check, graded
The 40% growth year needs 456,439 deliveries. Through September NIO had 300,301, so Q4 needed 156,138 — about 52,046 a month. October delivered 34,246. November and December now need 121,892 between them: 60,946 a month, twice, against an all-time record month of 48,135.
That is not a stretch target anymore. It is arithmetic saying no. The streak — 31 straight months of year-over-year growth — was the bull story. The streak is dead, and the target it was protecting died with it.
What the bulls still have
The year is still up 38.5%: 334,547 deliveries through October, already past the entire 2025 total of 326,028. FIREFLY is real — 23% of volume and setting records. The flagship brand grew in a hard month. October had a holiday week and an ONVO model changeover in it. All of that is true, and none of it repairs the arithmetic above.
The balance sheet underneath has not changed: 74.6% of the December cash pile was restricted or pledged, payables of RMB 60.4B exceed the entire cash pile, and fair value from the filings is $2.95 (bear $1.94 / base $3.32 / bull $4.98) against a price near $3.20.
What gets graded next
November deliveries, December 1: anything under ~55,000 keeps the target buried; a record month above 48,135 at least reopens the argument. The Q3 print: vehicle margin at or above 19%, and GAAP profit to common above zero — two more of the six checks, graded the night it prints. ONVO: a second halving, or the first recovery.
If the numbers flip, I will say so publicly, the same way the fair value on my last name got raised in public when the print earned it. The lines were set before the print. They do not move after it.
Full video breakdown is in my comment below. No position in NIO. Not financial advice.