Key insights
- Corecivic (CXW) is poised for a significant revenue boost and improved future forecasts due to the sale of multiple correctional facilities to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) at substantial markups. The article highlights a recent sale of a Minnesota prison for $495 million, significantly above its initial offer of $75 million, and previous sales totaling $2.2 billion for three other facilities. These transactions, coupled with ongoing operational contracts, suggest Corecivic may be an underappreciated value stock.
I heard about the insane overspend on the Minnesota prison, the prison was offered to the state for 75 million but was then bought for 495 million by the department of homeland security (DHS) back in August 2026. This made me think, "what a waste of tax payer money but how can I make money from this?", so I went digging!
Corecivic (CXW) owned the prison, they have a market cap of 3B and are reporting their earnings on November 4th.
Previous Quarterly Revenues:
- Q2 2026: 684 M * Q1 2026: 614 M * Q4 2026: 603 M * Q3 2026: 580 M
If this sale appears on the books this quarter, it will add a meaningful increase to their revenue and as part of the deal they will continue to operate the prison on a 75 M per year contract which increases their future forecast.
But that's not all, in the last quarter they sold 3 more facilities (California city, Otay Mesa, Midwest (Kansas)) to the DHS, totalling 2.2 B.
And again these were Massive overspends, the city had valued the Cali institution at 171 M, it was bought for 732 M, Otay Mesa county assessed the value at 165 M, that was bought for 739 M.
Does this make Corecivic an underappreciated value stock? No one saw these institutes being valued at the prices they sold for and they have more institutes to sell potentially at 4x to 6x multiples of what they are currently valued at