Key insights
- The article suggests that current fear surrounding Nvidia (NVDA) presents a contrarian buying opportunity, drawing parallels to past market panics around Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META). Despite Nvidia's central role in the AI revolution and strong fundamentals, its valuation appears cheaper than peers. The author believes AI and Nvidia are here to stay, implying potential upside for investors who buy into the current fear.
Microsoft, June 2026. SaaSpocalypse was going to kill software. MSFT went all the way down to $352 and now recovered to $523.00 (+48%). Alphabet, May 2025. AI was going to kill Google Search. GOOG closed at the bottom of $152. It's now at $295.35 (+93%). Meta, November 2022. Zuckerberg was going to burn all the cash on the metaverse. META went from the low of $90, up to current $623 (+587%). At these times market (and Reddit) was full of fear mongering, the end is near stories and advice on how and why to sell these companies. It assumed (wrongly) that fundamentals have changed to the point there is no value in investing in these companies anymore. They were all wrong. The narrative was wrong (at least at this point in time). The people who made most money were the ones who bought into the fear, going against the market and the narrative. It's counterintuitive and frightful, but as Warren Buffett said; be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. I think NVDIA now is at this point. Although at the very center of AI revolution, excellent balance sheet, sold out product- it's cheaper than AMD, Intel, Broadcom, Cerebras, ASML, TSMC, f* everyone else involved. At $166.19 it's trading at about 14x forward earnings. TSMC is trading around 19x, Broadcom 21x, ASML 24x, AMD 39x, and Intel 44x. The narrative again is we're all going down with Huang and it's time to sell. Well It could be. But in my semi-humble opinion AI is not going anywhere and neither is NVIDIA.