Key insights
- Freedom Broker downgraded Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Barrick Mining (B), and Newmont Corporation (NEM), citing reduced near-term EBITDA forecasts, operational risks, and valuation concerns. The downgrades led to significant share price drops for all three companies, with AEM falling 5.2%, B down 5.1%, and NEM down 4.1%. Analysts highlighted specific operational challenges and valuation premiums as reasons for the revised ratings and price targets.
Investing.com -- Mining equities tumbled on Thursday after Freedom Broker issued a sweeping set of downgrades across North America’s top gold producers, citing trimmed near-term EBITDA forecasts, lingering operational risks, and valuation constraints. The analyst actions took a toll on market sentiment, sending shares of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE: AEM) down 5.2%, Barrick Mining Corp (NYSE: B) lower by 5.1%, and Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) down 4.1% during morning trading.
Agnico Eagle Mines was downgraded from Buy to Hold as Freedom Broker reduced its price target to $212.00 from $255.00. While analysts at Freedom Broker noted that Agnico’s operational quality remains intact, its current valuation premium limits prospective returns, particularly as the firm revised its 2027 EBITDA projection downward by 6% to $11.0 billion against the backdrop of pit disruptions at Canadian Malartic and execution risks at Odyssey.
Barrick Mining similarly saw its rating lowered to Hold, with Freedom Broker cutting its price target to $46.00 from $54.00 following reductions to near-term earnings estimates. Despite trading at a discount to its peers at roughly 10.0x 2027E earnings and harboring longer-term catalysts like the Fourmile project and a proposed North American business IPO, Barrick's volatility-adjusted return profile fell short of the broker's Buy threshold.
Newmont Corporation completed the trio of downgrades, moving to a Hold rating with a price target reduced to $116.00 from $130.00. Freedom Broker highlighted that Newmont presents the least favorable balance of earnings growth and operational risk among major peers, pointing to cost inflation across its Australian portfolio alongside performance risks at the Lihir and Cadia assets as primary headwinds to its 2027 EBITDA outlook.
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