Key insights
- Intel's stock declined as TSMC explores a potential collaboration with Elon Musk's Terafab venture for a Texas semiconductor project. This development raises concerns about Intel's exclusive manufacturing role. TSMC's ADRs rose on the news, with Elon Musk confirming ongoing discussions. The potential deal could see TSMC own and operate the facility, with Terafab
Investing.com -- Intel shares fell over 4% in premarket trading Monday after reports emerged that TSMC is in discussions with Elon Musk's Terafab venture about a potential collaboration — a development that raises questions about Intel's position as the only previously named manufacturing partner at the Texas semiconductor project.
Intel joined Terafab in April 2026, with its next-generation 14A node designated as the facility's sole named process technology.
Meanwhile, TSMC's NYSE-listed ADR climbed 1% after Elon Musk confirmed over the weekend that discussions with the Taiwanese chipmaker about his Terafab semiconductor venture in Texas are ongoing. Taiwan-listed shares closed up 3% on Monday.
Musk posted on X on Sunday, October 4, that the talks are real but early: "Just discussions, but something may come of it." His confirmation followed an exclusive report published Friday, October 2 by the Culpium newsletter, which said TSMC is exploring ways to help Terafab operate its planned Texas semiconductor factories.
According to Culpium, the most likely structure would see TSMC own and operate the new facility with Terafab serving as an anchor customer — a model similar to TSMC's JASM joint venture in Japan and its ESMC partnership in Germany.
A Terafab partnership would represent an incremental addition to the $265 billion already committed to its 12-facility Arizona complex. Terafab is being developed by SpaceX and Tesla in Grimes County, Texas, roughly 100 km northwest of Houston.
An August 6 announcement committed $16.8 billion for the first phase, with county filings indicating a potential total cost of up to $119 billion across multiple phases.
Output is intended exclusively for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. Reports had already flagged that TSMC was separately evaluating a potential Texas investment on top of its Arizona commitments.
Moreover, Susquehanna analysts said this morning that Intel has likely continued to lose CPU model share in both laptops and desktops in the third quarter, with AMD gaining ground and Qualcomm reaching its highest laptop share yet.
Susquehanna estimates Intel’s model share fell 3.9% quarter over quarter to 68.1%, while AMD gained 3.1% to 29.3%. Qualcomm increased modestly to 2.2%, its highest level yet.
Intel’s new Panther Lake processor, based on its 18A process, reached about 1.8% of Intel-based laptop SKUs, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter. Susquehanna said the ramp was ahead of Lunar Lake’s trajectory but roughly in line with Arrow Lake.
On desktops, Intel’s model share fell 1.6% quarter over quarter to about 76%, its lowest level in the study since the second quarter of 2023.
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