BofA Raises US 10-Year Yield Forecast to 5.0% on Fiscal & Geopolitical Risks

Investing.com - Bank of America has revised its forecast for the US 10-year Treasury yield to 5.0% by year-end, up from its previous estimate of 4.5%, according to a research note released Thursday.

The bank also raised its 2-year yield forecast to 5.0% from 4.5%, slightly above current forward rates. The revisions come as markets face multiple risks including energy concerns related to Iran, fiscal challenges, trade tensions, and artificial intelligence uncertainties ahead of US midterm electi

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude oil price forecast to $85 per barrel for December as energy prices increased over the past several weeks across Asia-Pacific markets.

The bank's commodities strategists adjusted their outlook as energy prices moved higher, which is expected to be reflected in import prices and producer prices in September across many economies in the region. Consumer prices will see smaller increases due to fiscal subsidies and regulated prices in many count

Ever-higher costs to service mounting debt loads pose a major risk to governments around the world, economists have warned.

Global debt rose by $10 trillion in the first half of the year to top $365 trillion, according to research published by the Institute of International Finance on Wednesday.

State debts are rising as yields on medium- and long-term government bonds issued by a slew of the world’s biggest economies hit their highest levels in more than a decade — including in the U.S., Japa

Investing.com -- Utility stocks fell nearly 2% on Wednesday as the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.1%, according to BTIG. The sector has declined about 6% since late August as the 10-year yield climbed roughly 35 basis points during that period.

The last time 10-year rates stayed above 5% was in 2006-2007. During that period from mid-2006 through 2007, S&P 500 utility stocks traded at an average three-year forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 13.7 times, which matches current valuation

Investing.com -- BCA Research told clients in a note that the Federal Reserve’s return to rate hikes is unlikely to derail U.S. stocks. It pointed to history showing the S&P 500 has gained over every full Fed tightening cycle since 1980.

"The Fed’s first hike is unlikely to be an equity-market cliff," strategists Noah Weisberger and Yifei Liu wrote in a note.

The Fed raised rates last week. BCA expects a shallow cycle, with one or two more 25-basis-point increases. The firm said that path is a